Global Civic Reality & Power Index System
Observable signals → latent constructs, with uncertainty and observability explicitly modeled. A Bayesian hierarchical system that treats observability as a first-class variable, not a nuisance.
Professional Dashboards
Tailored views for different professional needs and time horizons
EM Portfolio Manager
3-12 months horizon
Position sizing, country allocation, risk limits
Sovereign Credit Analyst
1-5 years horizon
Credit ratings, limit recommendations
Risk Officer / CRO
Real-time to 1 year
Risk limits, stress tests, board reporting
ESG Analyst
1-10 years horizon
ESG ratings, engagement priorities
Macro Strategist
6 months - 3 years
Thematic tilts, macro overlays
Methodological Foundation
This index system does not claim to observe truth directly. It estimates latent constructs using heterogeneous, biased, and incomplete signals, while explicitly modeling measurement error, coverage, censorship, manipulation, missingness mechanisms, and temporal dependence.
Data Philosophy
Observable signals → latent constructs, with uncertainty and observability explicitly modeled at every stage.
Model Class
Bayesian hierarchical latent variable system with observability-aware weighting and manipulation detection.
Resolution
Canonical: Country-Month (ISO-3). Sub-national resolution optional for future expansion.
Version 0.1 | Status: Research / MVP-ready | The index is reproducible, versioned, and falsifiable. All transforms are deterministic and auditable. COS affects uncertainty, not point estimates.